This is the translation (slightly retouched) of an article that I published in the Italian Newspaper "Il Fatto Quotidiano." Apart from a few insults from the usual people, it was a remarkable success. I had many favorable comments, personal contacts, and question on how to move on, in practice, to install renewable plants and produce energy.
From "Il Fatto Quotidiano" Oct, 8, 2022
By Ugo Bardi
We all know that miracles are not so common and, if you have a major health problem, it is not likely that a little swim in the pool at Lourdes will be enough to solve it. However, it is also true that sometimes things change quickly, opening up new possibilities. That is what is happening with renewable energy. To speak of a "miracle" is too much, I know, but recent developments in technology have made available to us a tool that until a few years ago we did not even dream of having. And this may solve problems that once seemed unsolvable.
For years, I went around lecturing about climate change and other troubles ahead, pollution, oil depletion and the like. Usually, those who attended the lectures were people who were prepared for a not-so-optimistic message, but the problem was what to do about it. At the end of the lecture, a debate would follow in which the same things were said over and over again: riding a bicycle, lowering the thermostat in the house, putting double-paned glasses on the windows, using energy-efficient light bulbs, things like that.
It was a small reassuring ritual but, in practice, everyone knew that these were not real solutions. It's not that these things don't do any good, but they are mostly the spraying of a little green paint on a system that continues to depend on fossil fuels to function. Thus, we have been talking about double glazing and bicycles for at least 20 years, but CO2 emissions continue to rise as before, in fact, faster. Unless we get to the heart of the problem, eliminating fossil fuels, we aren't going anywhere. But how to do it? Until a few years ago, it seemed that there was no way except to go back to tilling the fields as our ancestors did during the Middle Ages.
But today things have changed dramatically. You probably haven't noticed, caught up in the election debate. But whether the right or the left wins, it changes little: change, the real kind, is coming with renewable technologies. Wind and photovoltaic plants have been optimized, and factors of scale have generated massive production cost savings. Today, a kilowatt-hour produced by a photovoltaic panel costs perhaps a factor of ten less than the kilowatt-hour from natural gas (and also a fifth of the nuclear kilowatt-hour). We used to call renewable energy "alternative," but today it is all the others that are "alternative." Moreover, producing energy with renewable plants does not pollute, does not require non-recyclable materials, does not generate greenhouse gases, is not susceptible to penalties, and no one can bomb the sun to leave us without power.
Now, don't make me say that renewables have automatically solved all the problems. It is true that they are cheap today, but it is also true that they are not free. Then, it takes investment to adapt the energy infrastructure across the country, create energy storage systems, and much more. These are not things that can be done in a month, or even in a few years. We are talking about a decade, at a minimum, to get to an energy system based primarily on renewables. But it is also true that every journey begins with the first step. And now we see before us a road ahead. A road that leads us to a cleaner, more prosperous, and hopefully less violent world.
I haven't stopped going around lecturing but, now, I can propose real solutions. And it is not just me who has realized the change. In the debate, today you can hear the enthusiasm that we can do something concrete. Many people ask if they can install photovoltaic panels at home. Others tell of having already done so. Some are mad (rightly so) at the bureaucracy that prevents them from installing PV panels on their roof or in their backyard. You also see the change in the discussions on social media. There is always someone who speaks against renewables by reasoning like the medieval flagellants who went around shouting "rememberthe you must die." But there are also those who respond to them in kind, like, "so go ahead and live happily in your grotto with the other cavemen."
If you have a south-facing balcony (and if your municipality doesn't get in your way), you can already install photovoltaic panels hanging from the railing that will help reduce your electricity bill. One little piece at a time, we will succeed!
Just a question. When does growth--of population and economic output--stop? Currently, roughly 1% growth of population (80 million more per year) and 2% growth of per capita incomes (world averages, more or less) doubles demand (GDP) every 25 years or so. So four doublings in a century. Equals sixteen times more output. Lets say efficiency gains can shave a percentage or two off growth in energy demand per unit of output, so doubling of energy demand in half a century (probably less, certainly less so far). The thing is, the next doubling will equal all the doublings so far. Switching to renewable energy will just allow humanity to hit another wall if growth continues for another doubling or two. Cutting growth turns out to not be so hard. Europe is below replacement fertility, should strive to stay there, and convince Africans they too would be better off if they were fewer. I've recently come to think of the switch from growth to no growth as the kind of huge change in mindset that took Copernicus, Galileo, and Newton over a century to accomplish. Think of ending growth as humanity reaching adulthood.
ReplyDelete